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With the NFL Draft approaching, betting markets can indicate how the picks may play out because they’re efficient and pretty smart.Last Monday, we looked at the betting markets and how they see the 2023 NFL Draft unfolding. Now we’re updating those projections and numbers.
Many insiders and people who love to bet on the NFL Draft have pegged this as one of the more difficult drafts to forecast in recent memory. It all hinges on what the Houston Texans decide to do at No. 2. Will a team trade up for C.J. Stroud if the Texans don’t want him? There’s also the intriguing aspect with three of the four teams in the AFC South trying to pick their quarterback of the future, with the Texans, Colts and Titans all holding selections in the first 11 picks.
As of Thursday afternoon, Bryce Young is the favorite go No. 1 overall. Will Anderson is the favorite (-300) to go No. 2 overall. CJ Stroud is the favorite go No. 3 overall and Anthony Ricardson is the favorite to No. 4 overall to the Colts. Will Levis is the second favorite to be selected by the Colts at No. 3.
Insiders can shift betting markets in a second. But sharp bettors love betting on the draft because it is easier to project a pick than a team beating another team, as variance and luck play a huge factor in games.
Dane Brugler’s The Beast, the complete 2023 NFL Draft Guide, is now available.
We’ll use betting odds to analyze the top 10. Predicting the NFL Draft is nearly impossible, especially when one move can change the entire board. Using data to see how people are betting on the draft, however, makes it interesting to compare to how NFL Draft experts see the best players and team needs.
All implied probability will remove the vig from the betting market to give a more accurate probability chance that the player is drafted at that position. Crowd-sourced odds are via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365.
Odds as of 7 p.m. Eastern time Monday.
1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This may be the only predictable pick in the first round Thursday night. We’re sure Bryce Young will play for the Panthers this fall. Young is -2000 on BetMGM to go No. 1 overall.
Pick Probability: 73.5 percent
2. Houston Texans: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The rest of the draft depends on what the Texans do at No. 2. Do they settle for Levis when it seems that Young was their No. 1 quarterback? Do they go in a completely different direction, skip drafting a quarterback and take the best available defensive player? Levis is the betting favorite here at -135, and he’s seen a ton of movement in the last week. If the Texans go defense, the betting market is leaning toward Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson Jr.
Pick Probability: 36.4 percent
3. Tennessee Titans (via ARI): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Tennessee trades up to get its QB of the future ahead of its AFC South rival, Indianapolis. This isn’t necessarily the betting market saying the Titans are the favorite to make that trade, but they’re one of the most likely teams to take a quarterback, so we are sliding them in here for argument’s sake. With Stroud’s stock dropping, former Buckeye and current Titans head coach Mike Vrabel can’t resist getting the second-best quarterback in this draft class.
Pick Probability: 19.2 percent
4. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Colts settle for Richardson if the Titans trade up and grab Stroud ahead of them. That’s what the betting market says, but we’re not sure which direction Indianapolis will go.
Pick Probability: 28.9 percent
5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Not much has changed in this spot as Wilson seems to be the favorite to go here, with The Athletic’s Dane Brugler also having Wilson at No. 5 to the Seahawks in his latest mock draft. There’s some movement for Wilson that if the Texans don’t pick a quarterback at No. 2, he could go there.
Pick Probability: 28.9 percent
6. Detroit Lions (via LAR): Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
The Lions will likely go cornerback or edge here, and they elect to take the sliding Anderson. He’ll pair nicely with 2022 No. 2 pick Aidan Hutchinson. And Detroit still has another first-round pick at No. 18 from the Rams.
Pick Probability: 43.7 percent
7. Las Vegas Raiders: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The betting market has the Raiders taking a cornerback. We don’t see other cornerbacks going off the board before Witherspoon at No. 7. The Raiders could also go with Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon — it’s a preference pick at that point. The Raiders eventually need a future quarterback, but Jimmy Garappolo is only 31, so they don’t have to reach for one this year.
Pick Probability: 19.8 percent
8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Last week, we mentioned some movement in the betting market toward Bijan Robinson going to the Falcons. That movement has continued in the past week, and we now favor Robinson going in the top 10 and to Atlanta.
Pick Probability: 22.4 percent
9. Chicago Bears (via CAR): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Dane Brugler had this in his last mock draft, and things have continued to move in this direction. The Bears have done their research on Carter and know his ability as a player as well as his off-the-field issues. It will be an interesting pick for newer general manager Ryan Poles.
Pick Probability: 17.4 percent
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
There are no “safe” picks in the NFL Draft, but subjectively, the Eagles getting one of the two best offensive linemen, and having him play either tackle or guard seems perfect for a team that almost won a Super Bowl and just signed Jalen Hurts to a long-term contract.
Pick Probability: 19.2 percent
For picks Nos. 11-31, we took the odds for each team to take a specific position, compared it to the big board’s best available players and selected based on which players remained after each pick was made.
11. Arizona Cardinals (via TEN): Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
12. Houston Texans (via CLE): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
13. Green Bay Packers (via NYJ): Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
14. New England Patriots: Paris Johnson Jr., OL, Ohio State
15. New York Jets (via GB): Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
16. Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
18. Detroit Lions: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
20. Seattle Seahawks: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Miami Dolphins: Pick forfeited
The NFL stripped the Dolphins of this pick last August as punishment for impermissible contact with Tom Brady and the agent of Sean Payton.
21. Los Angeles Chargers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
22. Baltimore Ravens: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
23. Minnesota Vikings: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
25. New York Giants: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
26. Dallas Cowboys: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
27. Buffalo Bills: Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State
28. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
29. New Orleans Saints (via DEN): Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
30. Philadelphia Eagles: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Edge, Kansas State
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
(Photo of Will Levis: Jay Biggerstaff / Getty Images)
2023 NFL Draft odds, projections: Will Will Levis go No. 2 to the Houston Texans? ›
The Houston Texans conclude the 2023 NFL Draft by picking Dylan Horton, Henry To'oTo'o, Jarrett Patterson, Xavier Hutchins, and Brandon Hill.What draft order will the Texans have in 2023? ›
The Houston Texans conclude the 2023 NFL Draft by picking Dylan Horton, Henry To'oTo'o, Jarrett Patterson, Xavier Hutchins, and Brandon Hill.Who will pick Will Levis? ›
The Tennessee Titans traded up for the No. 33 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Friday night to select Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee sent the No. 41 and No. 72 picks and its 2024 third-rounder to the Arizona Cardinals for No. 33 (Levis) and No. 81.How many draft picks will the Texans have in 2023? ›
The Texans have 12 picks in this year's draft, including two in the top-12 overall. Houston's own pick is second overall, while they also have the Browns first round pick (12th overall) from the Deshaun Watson trade. Quarterback is the biggest question with Houston, which is still looking to find Watson's replacement.What are the odds of the Houston Texans draft pick? ›
|C.J. Stroud, QB||Ohio State||+250|
|Will Anderson Jr., Edge||Alabama||+350|
|Tyree Wilson, Edge||Texas Tech||+400|
|Bryce Young, QB||Alabama||+500|
According to Tom Pelissero from the NFL Network, the salary cap will increase from $208.2 million in 2022 to $224.8 million in 2023. The figures over at Spotrac indicate the Texans will have the fifth-most salary cap in 2023 at $37.1 million.What teams have the best draft picks 2023? ›
- Philadelphia Eagles.
- Indianapolis Colts.
- Houston Texans.
- Seattle Seahawks.
- Chicago Bears.
The Tennessee Titans traded up with the Arizona Cardinals for the No. 33 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and selected former Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. Here's what you need to know: The Titans also acquired the No. 81 pick in the deal, the teams announced.Where is Will Levis projected to get drafted to? ›
It took much longer than most expected, but Will Levis has finally made Kentucky football history, becoming the ninth former Wildcat quarterback to be selected in the NFL draft, as the Tennessee Titans have taken the gunslinger with the No. 33 overall pick in the 2023 draft.What was Will Levis projected? ›
Will Levis, the quarterback from Kentucky, was widely projected to be drafted in the first round, if not the top 10 selections. Levis waits in the Green Room with family at the 2023 NFL Draft.
What picks do Houston Texans have in 2023? ›
After the trade, the Texans currently have seven picks remaining. They have the No. 73 (third round), No. 104 (fourth round), No. 105 (fourth round), No. 161 (fifth round), No. 201 (sixth round), No. 203 (sixth round), No. 259 (seventh round).Do the Houston Texans have a first round pick in 2023? ›
The Houston Texans have two first round picks and a chance to change the top 10 of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Texans have a new coach again, with former linebacker DeMeco Ryans installed as the coach.How many draft picks do the Houston Texans have in 2024? ›
The Texans currently have 10 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. A pair of those selections are first-rounders: their own, and the one acquired in the March 2022 trade with the Cleveland Browns. Houston also has a second-round pick, a third-round selection, and a pair of fourths.What is the draft order for 2023? ›
- Carolina Panthers* (from Chicago)
- Houston Texans.
- Arizona Cardinals.
- Indianapolis Colts.
- Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
- Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams)
- Las Vegas Raiders.
- Atlanta Falcons.
The order for all seven rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft is set, pending future trades. The first round kicked off on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET in Kansas City.Which NFL team will get first draft pick 2023? ›
The 2023 NFL Draft kicked off Thursday night in Kansas City, and quarterbacks went early and often, with Bryce Young starting the party as the No. 1 overall pick by the Panthers. C.J. Stroud followed suit as the No. 2 pick of the Texans, and the Colts got their own quarterback of the future two spots later.